How Does the NFL Do?

In Part I of this three-part series, we discovered that the NBA has a 72% chance of crowning the "correct" champ in any given year. The NFL does much, much worse:

1985 (season) Chicago Bears over New England Patriots
This is the first football game I can remember watching from beginning to end. No one could figure out that 46 defense. In three playoff games, the Bears gave up just 31 first downs and 10 points (all to the Pats in that SB blowout). In fact, the Bears' Defense (16 points) and Special Teams (7) more than doubled their opponents' total (10) during the playoffs. Who was the best team? Da Bears!

1986 New York Giants over Denver Broncos
The 1986 season saw a fantastic team (Giants, led by League MVP Lawrence Taylor) hoist the Lombardi trophy. The Giants had a top 10 offense and the second best defense in the league. Only the Bears gave up fewer points during the season: 187 - 236. (As a point of reference, the '85 Bears gave up 198 points). This begs the question: what happened to the Bears? Well, injuries, specifically at quarterback. McMahon missed all but 6 games during the season, backup Mike Tomczak started 7, and third stringer Steve Fuller started 2 (the only two regular season games the Bears lost). Doug Flutie (DOUG FLUTIE?) started the last regular season and first (*only*) playoff game for the Bears. Lots of controversy here. And a swift exit to the Skins in Round 2 confirmed what everyone knew: Ditka was a motivator, not a tactician. The Bears should have been better than the Giants, but they weren't. The New York Giants were the best team in 1986.

1987 Washington Redskins over Denver Broncos
This was just an odd year. The Players' Strike reduced the season to 15 games. AP MVP John Elway had a heck of a year, but the PFWA MVP and AP Offense Player of the Year Jerry Rice had his finest season. Playing in just 12 games (again, the strike) Rice had 22 receiving TDs. That's 29 projected over a full season. MADNESS. Anyway, the 49ers (13-2) had a +206 point differential during the regular season. Cleveland (10-5, +151) and N.O. (12-3, +139) were the only other teams with a +/- of more than 100. Cleveland failed to make the Super Bowl because of "The Fumble" while the 49ers couldn't help but fall all over themselves against the Vikings in the Divisional Round (really? splitting time with Steve Young and Joe Montana?). The Skins (11-4) were good, but not great (QB Doug Williams lost the only two regular season games he started, yet somehow quarterbacked the team to a Super Bowl Victory?). The Super Bowl did not crown the correct champ in 1987.

1988 San Francisco 49ers over Cincinnati Bengals
Look at that '88 49ers offense? Just look at that thing! Pro Bowl WRs Jerry Rice and John Taylor. NFL Offensive Player of the year Roger Craig (1,500 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving). Hall of Fame QBs Joe Montana and Steve Young. How was this team 7th in points scored during the regular season? I honestly can't remember, but I suspect it was because Joe wasn't right. Nonetheless, the 49ers (10-6) took comfort in a rotund Canadian watching the game and calmly won Super Bowl XXIII. But do they win that game if John Candy isn't in the house? I don't know. But I do know that League MVP Boomer Esiason and his Bengals (12-4) were the superior team. Sure, they could have won it, but if this game is played 3 times, they win 2 of 'em.

1989 San Fransisco 49ers over Denver Broncos
Not much to say here. The 49ers (14-2) were the class of the League. Montana submitted the best season ever by a quarterback (you could still mug WRs in 1989 - not so today). Rice, Craig and Taylor had another Pro Bowl year. They lost their two games by a combined 5 points. No one else was close.

1990 New York Giants over Buffalo Bills
There are three teams in this discussion: Giants (13-3), Bills (13-3) and the 49ers (14-2). Heading into Week 12, the Giants and 49ers were 10-0. They both lost that week, then faced each other in what was still the most anticipated regular season game of the 90's. The 49ers won 7-3 in a brutal Monday Night contest that saw Jerry Rice catch one pass and Lawrence Taylor (and the whole Giants team) go sackless. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills were quietly putting together an excellent season with the K-Gun offense (Kelly, Thomas, Reed) and an opportunistic defense (Talley, Smith, Odomes). In fact, the Bills beat the Giants in week 15, 17-13, which only indicated to me that a 49ers-Bills Super Bowl was imminent.

Enter the NFC Championship game. Much like the 7-3 regular season match, the game was short on TDs (just one, scored by John Taylor). The 49ers and Giants pulled whatever they could to generate points. With the 49ers up 13-9 in the 4th quarter, Wilbur Marshall not only sacked and forced Joe Montana to fumble, but he also knocked the League MVP out of the game. On the ensuing Giants' possession, the 49ers forced a 4th down, but the Giants ran a fake punt, gaining 30 yards on a run by LBer Gary Reasons. Another Matt Bahr FG, and with about 5 minutes left, the game was 13-12.

As we all know, Steve Young was no slouch, but he wasn't Joe Cool, either. So the 49ers entrusted their hopes to Roger Craig on four of their five plays during the final drive (the one passing play was a 24 yard completion to Brent Jones). Craig fumbled with 2:36 left on a dive up the middle (worst case scenario without a turnover - the Giants get the ball back on a punt after the 2 minute warning with no timeouts). Taylor recovered. Bahr nailed his final FG (42 yarder) as time expired.

For fear of retribution from Badgerstyle, I won't say who the best team was during the '90 season (49ers), but I know it wasn't the G-men...

1991 Washington Redskins over Buffalo Bills
I'm not sure how the Redskins (14-2) achieved such a meteoric rise without anyone noticing. They were tops in point differential (+261; the Bills, 13-3, were second with +140). They won each playoff game handily (beating their opponents by 17, 31, and 13 points). They boasted 2nd Team All-Pros at QB (Rypien), RB (Byner), and WR (Clark) and had a couple of 1st Team members at CB (Green) and LT (Lachey). Yes, this team was very, very good. No question here: the Skins were the best team of 1991.

1992 Dallas Cowboys over Buffalo Bills
Why Washington (9-7) couldn't repeat I'll never know (Rypien). They dominated '91. They possessed the 4th pick in the draft (though if you look at that first round, you'll notice something: it sucked). And they brought everyone back. Just odd. Anyway, the 49ers (14-2, +195, both tops in the League) were the favorites heading into the playoffs. The Cowboys (13-3, +166) and Bills (11-5, +98) also merit consideration. But the Bills can be discarded both for their record, their 15th ranked (by points allowed) defense, and that they were down 35-3 in the 3rd quarter to Houston on Wild Card Weekend and somehow (Frank Reich?) came back to win in OT.

So it comes down to this: were the Cowboys better than the 49ers? Once again, we're dealing with two excellent teams. Offensively, the 49ers had the edge at QB and WRs (Young, Rice, Taylor Sherrard v. Aikman, Irvin, Harper, and Martin), the Cowboys had the superior line and RB (Smith v. Waters), while TE was a wash (Novacek v. Jones). The Cowboys (5th in scoring defense) had a younger, faster defense but the 49ers (3rd in scoring defense) featured some excellent game-changers in Tim Harris (17 sacks), Bill Romanowski (designated team training assistant), and Don Griffin (5 INTs).

The game statistics from the Championship game illustrate just how evenly matched these teams were: 24 1st downs for each team; 416 yards gained by Dallas, 415 for San Fransisco; 4 penalties for each team; 4 sacks for the 49ers, 3 for Dallas (all by Tony Casillas). Tied 10-10 at halftime, the difference in the game came down to turnovers: the 49ers had 4 while the Cowboys secured the ball. Dallas 30, San Francisco 20. Sure, the field was a mess. Sure, the officials let Larry Brown mug Jerry Rice. But in the end, these teams are too closely matched to give the edge to either - Cowboys win the tiebreaker (they won on the field) and the NFL got this one right.

1993 Dallas Cowboys over Buffalo Bills
The Bills (12-4, +87) and Oilers (12-4, +130) were the class of the AFC. The Oilers were the trendy pick heading into the postseason, as they won their final 11 games. However, the Bills beat them soundly during the season (35-7) and they had a turnover problem (-2 on the year) that was their Achilles heal.

Meanwhile, Dallas (12-4, +147) and San Fransisco (10-6, +178) were the class of the NFC. This was the season Emmitt wanted to get paid, resulting in him missing the first two games of the season during a contract dispute (both Cowboy losses). In other words, maybe they should have been 14-2...

San Fransisco didn't have the muscle to handle the Cowboy's line while the Bills defense, though formidable, couldn't handle the Cowboys' offense (which featured 8 Pro Bowl players). How about them Cowboys!?!

1994 San Fransisco 49ers over San Diego Chargers
The 49ers (13-3, +209) completely dominated this season. In fact, I believe this was the best team of the last 25 years. The team had 10 Pro Bowl players, including League MVP Steve Young and Defensive Player of the Year Deion Sanders. Sanders and Ken Norton were imported while Bryant Young was drafted, adding 3 All-Pro caliber players to the defense. Aging, but cagey, vets Tim Harris, Richard Dent, Rickey Jackson, and Charles Mann were added to the defensive line as pass-rush specialists. Dana Stubblefield ('97's Defensive POY) anchored the line. Two Pro Bowl safeties and Deion made it very difficult for opponents to pass (and Eric Davis, the "other" CB, made the Pro Bowl the following season). This team had everything. And that's without discussing the top offense in the league. The Super Bowl was inevitable as the 49ers were the top team in '94.

1995 Dallas Cowboys over Pittsburgh Steelers
Steve Young missed 5 games, yet the 49ers (11-5, +199) still led the League in point differential. They had the top offense and second best defense in the League, yet fell to our mighty Packers in the Divisional Round. Packers fans will remember Steve Young completed less than 50% of his passes (though he threw 65 times) while Brett and co. played a perfect game. Even so, if that game is played 10 times, I'm not sure that the Packers with 4 of them. San Fransisco was the better team, just not on that afternoon.

Dallas (12-4, +144) boasted the League's third best offense and third best defense. During the off-season, Deion jumped to the Cowboys, leading many to believe the tide had shifted. However, the 49ers crushed the 'Boys 38-20 during the season, forcing 4 turnovers and knocking Aikman out of the game (the 49ers were led by Elvis Grbac). Further, the 'Boys were still led by Barry Switzer, a man who made George Seifert look like Bill Walsh. Losing Deion hurt the 49ers, but not enough. The men in red were the best team of '95.

1996 Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots
Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White. Brett Favre. Reggie White.

1997 Denver Broncos over Green Bay Packers
This season's top four teams were the Broncos (12-4, +185), Packers (13-3, +140), 49ers (13-3, +110), and Chiefs (13-3, +143). Though Denver had the League's best offense (GB was 2nd, SF 5th, and KC 6th) no one saw them coming. The Chiefs had the best defense (SF was 3rd, GB 5th, DEN 6th) but Elvis Grbac wasn't putting the fear of God into NFL defenses. Jerry Rice was lost for the year on an illegal tackle of Jerry Rice in Week 1, so the 49ers were a bit of smoke and mirrors. No, this season belonged to the Packers, only they couldn't stop Terrell Davis in the Super Bowl. I'm torn on this one, mainly because it was so utterly surprising that Denver showed up. The crushed Jacksonville on Wild Card Weekend, but the were PLAYING ON WILD CARD WEEKEND! They then beat KC by 4 and PIT by 3 before upsetting the Packers by 7 in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Packers cruised past Tampa (21-7) and SF (23-10). It isn't just hometown bias, the Packers were better than the Broncos, they just stumbled on Super Bowl Sunday.

1998 Denver Broncos over Atlanta Falcons
It was a three team race in '98, with the Vikings (15-1, +260) the overwhelming favorite to take the title. Randall Cunningham (34/10 TD/INT), Robert Smith (1,200 yards 14 games), Chris Carter (78/1011/12TDs) and Randy Moss (69/1313/17) led the NFL's second-highest scoring offense of all-time (only to be eclipsed by the 2007 Pats). The defense (6th in the league) was stout. This team was unstoppable. Well, it was unstoppable until Gary Anderson missed his first FG of the year in the NFC Championship Game, as time expired (oh, and it was a bunny, too). They were much better than the Falcons, they just had some bad luck in that game.

Now, were the Vikings better than the Broncos (14-2, +192, 2nd Off, 8th Def)? I think so. Even though the '98 team was much better than the '97 version, Elway was starting to fall apart. Davis turned in a monster year (2,008 yards, 21 TDs) but this was an old defense that could not have matched the Vikings speed. '98 also got it wrong.

1999 St. Louis Rams over Tennessee Titans
This season is remembered for a lot of things, but one that's too often forgotten is the 62-7 thrashing of the Dolphins (9-7) by the Jaguars (14-2, +179) in the Divisional Round. It was Dan Marino's last game. The reason I bring it up is because the Jags were the team everyone expected to face the mighty Rams (13-3, +284) in the Super Bowl. They had the 6th best offense and top defensive unit in the League. The offense focused on ball-control (only 18 TOs and over 2,000 yards rushing) while the defense was led by no-nonsense tough guys at each level (Brackens, Hardy, Lake). But were the Jags better than the Rams? No chance.

Let's not forget that Warner had an in-his-prime Marshall Faulk to match with Bruce and Holt. They had the most dangerous punt returner in the game (Az-Zahir Hakim - who also had 677/8TDs as the deep-threat WR) and a big-play defense (17 Sacks for Kevin Carter; 6 INTS for Todd Lyght) ranked 4th overall. Though no one expected it in August, the Rams were the cream of the League in 1999).

2000 Baltimore Ravens over New York Giants
The aftereffects of the 1992 salary cap were finally felt in 2000. Parity. Lots of parity. Baltimore's (12-4, +168) defense was crazy-good, but so was Tennessee's (13-3, +155). What bothers me here is the Titans beat the Ravens 14-6 in a Week 8 game at Baltimore. The Week 11 game at Tennessee saw Baltimore win 24-23, but it should be noted that of the 38 PATs Al Del Greco attempted in this, his final season, the only one he missed was in the 4th quarter of that 24-23 loss. What would have happened in OT is anyone's guess. The fact that the Ravens won in the Divisional Round assuages my concerns, but even then, they won by two TDs, which came on a 90 yard blocked FG return for a TD and a 50 yard INT return for a TD. I cannot say the Titans were better than the Ravens, but I can't help but wonder if they were.

I'm not giving any consideration to the Giants (12-4, +82) simply because Ron Dayne carried the ball more than anyone else, despite having a 3.4 yards/carry average.

2001 New England Patriots over St. Louis Rams
The Rams (14-2. +230) were a "lock" to win it all this season (injuries to Warner and Faulk derailed their bid for a back-to-back title the previous year). The offense was tops in the League and the defense was a "strong" 7th, with veteran CB Aeneas Williams forging the unit's personality and sack specialist Leonard Little (14.5 sacks) making big plays on passing downs. This is a team that really should have been 15-1, but for a thrilling 34-31 loss to the Saints in Week 7 in which the Rams had 8 TOs (and they only lost by 3?). Indeed, during their other loss, to the Bucs in Week 11 (24-17), they had 6 turnovers. It's clear what the team's Achilles' heal was. With 44 TOs during the regular season, it can be argued that the Rams were a powder-keg waiting to happen. And it could be argued correctly, as a 3-0 TO margin in the Super Bowl allowed the Pats (11-5, +99) to win by the smallest of Adam Vinatieri margins (20-17).

Nonetheless, the Rams were the best team in '01. They were merely unlucky with the Super Bowl draw. Had the Pats lost to the Raiders in the "Tuck Rule" game, I only have to spend 2 sentences on this season. Instead, the Pats went on to beat the Steelers (13-3, +140) in a similar fashion to how they would win the Super Bowl (4-0 TO margin, 24-17 final score). The Pats were the perfect foil against the explosive Rams, as they were a conservative team focused on minimizing mistakes. And they still needed a heroic FG at the gun to win. Sorry Pats fans, but you were luckier, not better, than the Rams.

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Oakland Raiders
Another difficult season to assess. Rich Gannon was League MVP (what?) leading the Raiders (11-5, +146) to the Super Bowl with ease (they won the Divisional and Championship Weekends by 20 and 17, respectively). The Bucs (12-4, +150) and Eagles (12-4, +174) were the cream of the NFC crop. But in a season without a dominant team, the tie (once again) must go to the Super Bowl Champ, as the Bucs stomped the Eagles (27-10) and Raiders (48-21) in consecutive weeks to take the title.

2003 New England Patriots over Carolina Panthers
The Pats (14-2, +110) were the NFL's best team this season. But allow my homerism to digress to the Packers (10-6, +135). This was 4th and 26. One stop by the defense and the only thing standing in our way would have been Jake Delhomme. While we might not have stacked up to the Chiefs (13-3, +152) or defense-less Colts (12-4, +111), we were every bit as good as any NFC team. Wasted chances...

2004 New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles
The Patriots (14-2, +177) had their fans feeling pretty entitled by this point. But who could blame them? The 12-4 Colts (+171) still didn't have the defense to compete with the Pats. The Steelers (15-1, +121) were doing it with a rookie quarterback. The Chargers (12-4, +133) were coached by Marty Schottenheimer. And the Eagles (13-3, +126) were quarterbacked by this guy (not the kind of player you want to lead you to the title). The Pats were #1.

2005 Pittsburgh Steelers over Seattle Seahawks
I'm genuinely confused right now. I've just spent 15 minutes reviewing this season and it seems pretty clear that the Colts (14-2, +192) were the best team this season. The Seahawks were the closest (13-3, +181) but their stats look skewed by a terrible NFC West. The Colts, meanwhile, were the first #1 to lose to a #6 in the Divisional Round during the wackiest game I can ever remember watching. If you recall, of all the odd things that happened in that game, the strangest was that the Colts would have won on a defensive touchdown had he not been stabbed in the knee with a knife (by his wife) the previous day. Nope, very odd game. And season.

2006 Indianapolis Colts over Chicago Bears
In all of the years for the Colts to win their title, this was the worst. The Pats (12-4, +148), Ravens (13-3, +152), and Chargers (14-2, +189) can all lay claim to being the superior team to the Colts (12-4, +67). LdT led an excellent Chargers (1st in offense, 7th in defense) that couldn't get past the Pats (7th/2nd) in the Divisional Round. When the Pats fell to the Colts (2nd/23rd) in the Championship Game, 38-34, the only thing that prevented the Pats' 4th title in 6 years was Troy Brown turning the wrong way on a 4th down late in the game. No, the Colts got the title, but there was at least one team better than them.

2007 New York Giants over New England Patriots
Five titles in seven years. That was a realistic outcome (by my count, it should have been four titles) looking back on the aughts. The Pats (16-0, +315) destroyed just about everyone this season. The Giants (10-6, +22) just don't compare. But for one game, they played perfectly. And yet they still needed this catch to win. It makes no sense. Heck, they should have been playing the Packers (13-3, +144), but Favre missed Ryan Grant on a checkdown in OT of the Championship Game that would have put them in FG range (instead, he threw and interception).

2008 Pittsburgh Steelers over Arizona Cardinals
Tom Brady could have made this pretty easy had he not decided to fake a knee injury and skip the season. So selfish of him. Anyway, I think this one comes down to the Steelers (12-4, +124) and the Colts (12-4, +79). The Titans (13-3, +141) were the advanced statistics darlings. I just can't get over trusting that team to Kerry Collins and Albert Haynesworth. Then again, they outplayed Baltimore in the Divisional Round and lost 13-10, so perhaps they're being dismissed too quickly. /looks at Kerry Collins and his WRs... Nope, Tennessee was overrated.

The Colts' record and year-long statistics are skewed due to the mysterious knee injury Peyton Manning played through to begin the year (it seems to have affected his performance for 6-8 games). The Colts won their final 9 and promptly laid an egg at San Diego on Wild Card Weekend, losing 23-17 in OT. Without that stumbling block, though, I can't see the Colts failing to beat Pittsburgh, a team with just 3 Pro Bowl Players. It's close, but decisive: the Colts were the better team in '08

2009 New Orleans Saints over Indianapolis Colts
There is no two ways about it: the Minnesota Vikings (12-4, +158) were the best team in '09. All those Pro Bowl players. The best QB/RB combo in the game. The Saints (13-3, +169) were also excellent. But if that Championship game is played 10 times, the Vikings win 6. If it's played on a neutral field, they'd win 8. It's just inconceivable that they lost (yay!), but that's any given Sunday for you...

Final tally: 13 of 25 (52%) Yikes!